DECLINE IS A CHOICE (2009)
352 the weather vanes of conventional wisdom are engaged in another round of angst about America in decline. new theories, old slogans: Imperial overstretch. the Asian awakening. the post-American world. inexorable forces beyond our control bring the inevitable humbling of the world hegmon - a nation who exercises hegemony (leader, prominent, influence).
on the other side of his debate are a few - notably Josef Joffe in recent essay in Foreign Affairs - who resist the current fashion and insist that America remains the indispensable power. they note that declinist predictions are cyclical, that the rise of China and perhaps India are just the current version of the Japan panic of the late 1980s or of the earlier pessimism best captured by Jean-Fancois Revel's How Democracies Perish.
the anti-declinists point out, for example, that the fear of China is overblown. it's based on the implausible assumption of indefinite, uninterrupted growth; ignores accumulating externalities like pollution (which can be ignored when growth starts from a very low baseline, but ends up making growth increasingly, chokingly difficult); and overlooks the unavoidable consequences of the one-child policy, which that China will get old before it gets rich.
and just as the rise of China is a straight -line projection of the fearful, pessimistic mood of a country war-weary and in the grip of a severe recession.
among these crosscurrents, my thesis is simple: the question of whether America is in decline cannot be answered yes of no. there IS no yes or no. both are wrong because the assumption that somehow there exists some predetermined inevitable trajectory, the result of uncontrollable external forces, is wrong. nothing is inevitable. nothing is written. for america today, decline is not a condition. decline is a choice . two decades into the unipolar world that came
about with the fall of the Soviet Union, America is in the position of deciding whether to abdicate or retain its dominance, decline - or continued ascendancy - is in our hands.
not that decline is always a choice. Britain's decline after World II Was foretold, as indeed was that of Europe, which had been the dominant global force of the preceding centuries. the civilizational suicide that was the 2 world wars and the consequent physical and psychological exhaustion, made continued dominance impossible and decline inevitable.
the corollary to unchosen European collapse was unchosen American ascendancy. We - whom Lincoln once called God's 'almost chosen people' - did not save Europe twice In Order to emerge from the ashes as the world's co-hegemon. we went in to defend ourselves and save civilization. our dominance after World War II was not sought. nor was the even more remarkable dominance after the Soviet collapse. we are the rarest of geopolitical phenomena: the accidental hegemon and, given our history of isolationism and lack of instinctive imperial ambition, the reluctant hegemon - and now, after a near decade of strenuous post - 9/11 exertion, more reluctant than ever.
which leads to my second proposition: facing the choice of whether to maintain or dominance or to gradually, deliberately, willingly and indeed relievedly give it up, we are currently on a course toward the latter. the current liberal ascendancy in the United States -controlling the executive and both houses of Congress, dominating the media and elite culture - has set us on a course for decline. and this is true for both foreign and domestic policies. indeed, they work synergistically to ensure that outcome.
the current foreign policy of the United States is an exercise in contraction. it begins with the demolition of the moral foundation of American dominance. in Strasbourg, President Obama was asked about American exceptionalism. His answer? 'I believe in American exceptionalism, just as i suspect that the Brits believe in British exceptionalism and the Greeks believe in Greek exceptionalism'. interesting response.because if everyone is exceptional, no one is.
*354 indeed, as he made his Hajj from Strasbourg to Prague to Ankara to Istanbul to Cairo and finally to the UN General Assembly, Obama drew the picture of an America quite exceptional - exceptional in moral culpability and heavy-handedness, exceptional in guilt for its treatment of other nations and peoples. with varying degrees of directness or obliqueness, Obama indicted his own country for arrogance, for dismissiveness and derisiveness (toward Europe), for maltreatment of natives, for torture, for Hiroshima, for Guantanamo, for unilateralism and for insufficient respect for the Muslim world.
quite an indictment, the fundamental consequence of which is to effectively undermine any moral claim that America might have to world leadership, as well as the moral confidence that any nation needs to have in order to justify to itself and to others its position of leadership. according to the new dispensation, having forfeited the mandate of heave - if it ever had on - a newly humbled America now seeks a more modest place among the nations, not above them.
but that leads to the question: how does this new world govern itself? how is the international system to function?
Henry Kissinger once said that the only way to achieve peace is through hegemony or balance of power. well, hegemony is out. as Obama said in his General Assembly address, 'No one nation can or should try to dominate another nation'. (the 'can in that declaration is priceless.) and if hegemony is out, so is balance of power: ''No balance of power among nations will hold'.
the president then denounced the idea of elevating any group of nations above others - which takes care, I suppose, of the Security Council, the G-20 and the Western alliance. and just to make the point unmistakable, he denounced 'alignments of nations rooted in the cleavages of a long-gone Cold War' as making 'no sense in an interconnected world'. what does that say about NATO? of our alliances with Japan and South Korea? or even of the European Union?
this is nonsense. but it is not harmless nonsense. it's nonsense with a point. it reflects a fundamental view that the only legitimate authority in the international system is that which emanates from
*355 'the community of nations' as a whole. which means, I suppose, acting through its most universal organs such as, again I suppose, the UN and its various agencies. which is why when Obama said that those who doubt 'the character and cause' of his own country should see what this new America - the America of the liberal ascendancy - had done in the last 9 months, he listed among these restorative and relegitimizing initiatives paying up UN dues, renewing actions on various wholly vacuous universalist declarations and agreements and joining such Orwellian UN bodies as the Human Rights Council.
these gestures have not gone unnoticed abroad. the Nobel Committee effused about Obama's radical reorientation of US foreign policy. its citation awarding him the Nobel Peace Prize lauded him for having 'created a new climate' in the international relations in which 'multilateral diplomacy was regained a central position, with emphasis on the role that the United Nations and other institutions can play'.
of course, the idea of the 'international community' acting through the UN - a fiction and a farce, respectively - to enforce norms and maintain stability is absurd. so absurd that i suspect it's really just a metaphor for a world run by a kind of mulipolar arrangement not of nation-states but of groups of states acting through multilateral bodies, whether institutional (like the International Atomic Energy Agency) or ad hoc (like the P5+1 Iran negotiators).
but whatever bizarre form of multilateral or universal structures is envisioned for keeping world order, certainly hegemony - and specifically American hegemony - is to be retire.
this renunciation of primacy is not entirely new. liberal internationalism as practiced by the center-left Clinton administrations of the 1990s - the beginning of the unipolar era - was somewhat ambivalent about American hegemony, although it did allow america to be characterized as 'the indispensable nation', to us Madeleine Albright's phrase. Clintonian center-left liberal internationalism did seek to restrain American power to tying Gulliver down with
*356 a myriad of treaties and agreements and international conventions. that conscious constraining of America within international bureaucratic and normative structures was rooted in the notion that power corrupts and that external restraints would curb arrogance and over-reaching and break a willful america to the role of good international citizen.
but the liberal internationalism of today is different. it is not center-left by left-liberal. and the new left-liberal internationalism goes for beyond its earlier Clintonian incarnation in its distrust of and distaste for American dominance, for what might be called the New Liberalism, the renunciation of power is rooted not in the fear that we are essentially good but subject to the corruptions of power - the old Clintonian view - but rooted in the conviction that America is so intrinsically flawed, so inherently and congenitally sinful that it cannot be trusted with and does not merit, the possession of overarching world power.
for the New Liberalism, it is not just that power corrupts. it is that America itself is corrupt - in the sense of being deeply flawed, and with the history to prove it. an imperfect union, the theme of Obama's famous Philadelphia race speech, has been carried to and amplified in his every major foreign-policy address, particularly those delivered on foreign soil. (not surprisingly, since it earns greater applause over there.)
and because we remain so imperfect a nation, we are in no position to dictate our professed values to theirs around the world. Demonstrators are shot in the streets of Tehran seeking nothing but freedom, but our president holds his tongue because, he says openly, of our won alleged transgressions toward Iran (presumably involvement in the 1953 coup). our shortcomings are so grave and our offenses both domestic and international so serious, that we lack the moral ground on which to justify hegemony.
these fundamental tenets of the New Liberalism are not just theory. they have strategic consequence. if we have been illegitimately playing the role of world hegemon, then for us to regain a legitimate
*357 place in the international system we must regain our moral authority. and recovering moral space means renouncing ill-gotten or ill-conceived strategic space.
operationally, this manifests itself in various kinds of strategic retreat, most particularly in reversing policies stained by even the hint of American unilateralism or exceptionalism. thus, for example, there is no more 'Global War of Terror'. it's not just that the term has been abolished or that the secretary of homeland security refers to terrorism as 'man-caused disasters'. it is that the very idea of our nation and civilization being engaged in a global mortal struggle with jihadism has been retired as well.
the operational consequences of that new view are already manifest. in our reversion to pre-9/11 normalcy - the pretence of pre-9/11 normalcy - anti-terrorism has reverted from war fighting to law enforcement.high-level al-Quaeda prisoners, for example, will henceforth be interrogated not by the CIA but by the FBI, just as our response to the attack on the USS sole pre-9/11 - an act of war - was to send FBI agents to Yemen.
the operational consequences of voluntary contraction are already evident:
*unilateral abrogation of our missile-defence arrangements with Poland and the Czech Republic - a retreat being felt all through Eastern Europe to Ukraine and Georgia as a signal of US concession of strategic space to Russia in its old sphere of influence.
indecision on Afghanistan - a widely expressed ambivalence about the mission and a serious contemplation of minimalist strategies that our commanders of the ground have reported to the president have no chance of success. in short, a serious contemplation of strategic retreat in Afghanistan (only 2 months ago it was declared by the president to be a 'war of necessity') with possibly catastrophic consequences for Pakistan.
*in Iraq, a determination to end the war according to rigid
*358 timetables, with almost no interest in garnering the fruits of a very costly and very bloody success - namely, using our Strategic Framework Agreement to turn the new Iraq into a strategic partner and anchor for US influence in the most volatile area of the world. Iraq is a prize - we can debate endlessly whether it was worth the cost - of great strategic significance that the administration seems to have no intention of exploiting in its determination to execute a full and final exit.
* in Honduras, where again because of our allegedly sinful imperial history, we back a Chavista caudillo seeking illegal extension of his presidency who was removed from power by the legitimate organs of state - from the supreme court to the national congress - for grave constitutional violations.
the new Liberalism will protest that despite its rhetoric, it is not engaging in moral reparations, but seeking real strategic advantage for the US on the assumption that the reason we had not gotten cooperation from, say, the Russians, Iranians, North Koreans or even our European allies on various urgent agendas is American arrogance, unilateralism and dismissiveness. and therefore, if we constrict and rebrand and diminish ourselves deliberately - try tho make ourselves equal partners with obviously unequal powers abroad - we will gain the moral high ground and rally the world to our causes.
well, being a strategic argument, the hypothesis is testable. let's tally up the empirical evidence of what 9 months of self-abasement has brought.
with all the bowing and scraping and apologizing and renouncing, we couldn't even sway the International Olympic Committee. given the humiliation incurred there in pursuit of a trinket, it is no surprise how little our new international posture has yielded in the coin of real strategic goods. unilateral American concessions and offers of unconditional engagement have moved neither Iran nor Russia nor North Korea to accommodate us. nor have the Arab states - or even the powerless Palestinian Authority - offered so much as a gesture of
*359 accommodation in response to heavy and gratuitous American pressure on Israel. nor have even our European allies responded: they have anted up essentially nothing in response to our pleas for more assistance in Afghanistan.
the very expectation that these concessions would yield results is puzzling. thus, for example, the president is proposing radical reductions in nuclear weapons and presided over a Security Council meeting passing a resolution whose goal is universal unclear disarmament, on the theory that unless the existing nuclear powers reduce their weaponry, they can never have the moral standing to demand that other states not go nuclear.
but whatever the merits of unilateral or en bilateral US -Russian disarmament, the notion that it will lead to reciprocal gestures from the likes of Iran and North Korea is simply childish. they are seeking the bomb for reasons of power, prestige, intimidation, blackmail and regime preservation. they don't give a whit about the level of nuclear arms among the great powers. indeed, both Iran and North Korea launched their nuclear weapons ambitions in the 1980s and 1990s - precisely when the US and Russia were radically reducing their arsenals.
this deliberate choice of strategic retreats to engender good feeling is based on the naive hope of exchanges of reciprocal good will with rogue states. it comes as no surprise, therefore, that the theory - as policy - has demonstrably produced no strategic advances. but that will not deter the New Liberalism because the ultimate purpose of its foreign policy is to make America less hegemonic, less arrogant, less dominant.
in a word, it is a foreign policy designed to produce American decline - to make America essentially one nation among many. and for that purpose, its domestic policies are perfectly complementary.
domestic policy, of course, is not Designed to curb our power abroad. but what it lacks in intent, it makes up in effect. decline will be an unintended, but powerful, side effect of the New Liberalism's ambition of moving America from its traditional dynamic individualism
*360 to the more equitable but static model of European social democracy.
this is not the place to debate the intrinsic merits of the social democratic versus the Anglo-Saxon model of capitalism. there's much to be said for the decency and relative equity of social democracy. but it comes at a cost: diminished social mobility, higher unemployment, less innovation, less dynamism and creative destruction less overall economic growth.
this affects the ability to project power. growth provides the sinews of dominance - the ability to maintain a large military establishment capable of projecting power to all corners of the earth. the Europeans, rich and developed, have almost no such capacity. they made the choice long ago to devote their resources to a vast welfare state. their expenditures on defense are minimal,as are their consequent military capacities. they rely on the US Navy for open seas and on the US Air Force for airlift. it's the US Marines who go ashore, not just in battle but for such global social services as tsunami relief. the US can do all of this because we spend infinitely more on defence - more than the next 9 countries combined.
those are the conditions today. but they are not static or permanent. they require constant renewal. the express agenda of the New Liberalism is a vast expansion of social services -massive intervention and expenditures in energy, health care and education - that will necessarily, as in Europe, take away from defense spending.
this shift in resources is not hypothetical. it has already begun. at a time when hundreds of billions of dollars are being lavished on stimulus and other appropriations in an endless array of domestic programs, the defense budget is practically frozen. almost every other department is expanding and the Defense Department is singled out for making 'hard choices' - forced to look everywhere for cuts, to abandon highly advanced weapons systems, to choose between readiness and research, between today's urgencies and tomorrow's looming threats.
take, for example, missile defense, in which the US has
*361 a great technological edge and one perfectly designed to maintain American preeminence in a century that will be dominated by the ballistic missile. missile defense is actually being cut. the number of interceptors in Alaska to defend against a North Korean attack has been reduced and the airborne laser program (the most promising technology for a boost0phase antiballistic missile) has been cut back - at the same time that the federal education budget has been cut back - at the same time that the federal education budget has been increased 100% in one year.
this preference for social goods over security needs is not just evident in budgetary allocations and priorities. it is seen, for example, in the liberal preference for environmental goods. by prohibiting the drilling of offshore and Arctic deposits, the US is voluntarily denying itself access to vast amounts of oil that would relieve dependence on - and help curb the wealth and power of - various petro-dollar challengers,from iran to Venezuela to Russia. Again, we can argue whether the environment versus security trade-off is warranted. but there is no denying that there is a trade off.
nor are these the only trade-offs. primacy in space - a galvanizing symbol of American greatness, so deeply understood and openly championed by John Kennedy - is gradually being relinquished. in the current reconsideration of all things Bush, the idea of returning to the moon in the next decade is being jettisoned. after next September, the space shuttle will never fly again and its replacement is being reconsidered and delayed. that will leave the united States totally incapable of returning even to near-Earth orbit, let alone to the moon. instead, for ears to come, we shall be entirely dependent on the russians or perhaps eventually even the Chinese.
of symbolic but also more concrete importance is the status of the dollar. the social democratic vision necessarily involves huge increases in domestic expenditures, most immediately for expanded healthcare. the plans currrently under consideration will cost in the range of $1 trillion. and once the budget gimmicks are discounted (such as promises of $500 billion cuts in Medicare that will never eventuate), that means hundreds of billions of dollars Added to the
*362 monstrous budgetary deficits that the Congressional Budget Office projects conservatively at $7 trillion over the next decade.
the effect on the dollar is already being felt and could ultimately lead to a catastrophic collapse and/or hyperinflation. having control of the world's reserve currency is an irreplaceable national asset. yet with every new and growing estimate of the explosion of the national debt, there are more voices calling for replacement of the dollar as the world currency - not just adversaries like Russia and China, Iran and Venezuela, which one would expect, but just last month the head of the World Bank.
there is no free lunch. social democracy and its attendant goods may be highly desirable, but they have their price - a price that will be exacted on the dollar, on our primacy in space, on missile defence, on energy security and on our military capacities and future power projection.
but, of course, if one's foreign policy is to reject the very notion of international primacy in the first place, a domestic agenda that takes away the resources to maintain such primacy is perfectly complementary. indeed, the 2 are synergistic. renunciation of primacy abroad provides the added resources for more social goods at home. to put it in the language or the 1990s, the expanded domestic agenda is fed by a peace dividend - except that in the absence of peace, it is a Retreat dividend.
and there's the rub. for the Europeans there really is a peace dividend, because we provide he peace.they can afford social democracy without the capacity to defend themselves because they can always depend on the US.
so why not us as well? because what for Europe is decadence - decline, in both comfort and relative safety - is for us mere denial. Europe can eat, drink and be merry for america protects her. but for America it's different.if we choose the life of ease, who stands guard for us?
the temptation to abdicate has always been strong in america. our interventionist tradition is recent. our isolationist tradition goes
*363 far deeper. when the ea of maximum dominance began 20 years ago - when to general surprise a unipolar world emerged rather than a post-Cold War multipolar one - there was hesitation about accepting the mantle. the liberal internationalism of the 1990s, the center-left clintonian version, was reluctant to fully embrace American hegemony and did try to rein it in by creating external restraints. nonetheless, in practice, it did boldly intervene in the Balkan wars (without the sanction of the Security Council, mind you) and openly accepted a kind of intermediate status as 'the indispensable nation'.
not today. the ascendant New Liberalism goes much further, actively seeking to subsume america within the international community - inter (between) pares (parish), not even primus (of first importance) and to enact a domestic social agenda to suit.
so why not? why not choose ease and bask in the adulation of the world as we serially renounce, withdraw and concede?
because, while globalization has produced in some the illusion that human nature has changed, it has not. the international arena remains a Hobbesinan state of nature in which countries naturally strive for power. if we voluntarily renounce much of ours, others will not follow suit. they will fill the vacuum. inevitably, an inversion of power relations will occur.
do we really want to love under unknown, untested, shifting multipolarity? or even worse, under the gauzy (def - thin, open, meshlike weave) internationalism of the New Liberalism with its magically self-enforcing norms? this is sometimes passed off as 'realism'. in fact, it is the worst of utopininsms, a fiction that can lead only to chaos. indeed, in an age on the threshold of hyperproliferation, it is a prescription for catastrophe.
heavy are the burdens of the hegemon. after the blood and treasure expended in the post 9?11 wars, america is quite ready to ease its burden with a gentle descent into abdication and decline.
decline is a choice. more than a choice, a temptation. how to resist it ?
first, accept our role as hegemon. and reject those who deny its essential benignity. there is a reason that we are the only hegemon
*364 in modern history to have not immediately catalyzed the creation of a massive counter-hegemonic alliance - as occurred, for example, against napoleonic France and Nazi Germany. there is a reason so many countries of the pacific Rim and the Middle East and Eastern Europe and Latin America welcome our presence as balancer of power and guarantor of their freedom.
and that reason is simple: we are as benign a hegemon as the world has ever seen.
so, resistance to decline begins with moral self-confidence and will. but maintaining dominance is a matter not just of will but of wallet. we are not inherently in economic decline. we have the most dynamic, innovative, technologically advanced economy in the world. we enjoy the highest productivity. it is true that in the natural and often painful global division of labor wrought by globalization, less skilled endeavors like factory work migrate abroad, but america more than compensates by pioneering the newer technologies and industries of the information age.
there are, of course, major threats to the American economy. but there is nothing inevitable and inexorable about them. take, for example. the threat to the dollar ( as the world's reserve currency) that comes from our massive trade deficits. here again, the China threat is vastly exaggerated. in fact, fully 2/3 of our trade imbalance comes from imported oil. this is not a fixed fact of life. we have a choice. we have it in our power, for example, to reverse the absurd de facto 30 year ban on new nuclear power plants. we have it in our power to release huge domestic petroleum reserves by dropping the ban on offshore and Arctic drilling. we have it in our power to institute a serious gasoline tax (refunded immediately through a payroll tax reduction) to curb consumption and induce conservation.
nothing is written. nothing is predetermined. we can reverse the slide, we can undo dependence if we (W)ill it.
the other looming threat to our economy - and to the dollar - comes from our fiscal deficits. they are not out of our control. there is no reason we should be structurally perpetuating the massive deficits
*365 incurred as temporary crisis measures during the financial panic of 2008. a crisis is a terrible thing to exploit when it is taken by the New Liberalism as a mandate for massive expansion of the state and of national debt - threatening the dollar. the entire economy and consequently our superpower status abroad.
there are things to be done. resist retreat as a matter of strategy and principle. and provide the means to continue our dominant role in the world by keeping our economic house in order. and finally, we can follow the advice of Demosthenes when asked what was to be done about the decline of Athens. his replay? 'I will give what I believe is the fairest and truest answer: DON'T DO WHAT YOU ARE DOING NOW.
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